Ohio State vs. Michigan,
02/18/2012 21:00 EDT,
Score: 51 - 56
Point Spread: +5½/-105 Michigan
1 Unit on Michigan +5.5
The Wolverines aren't getting the respect they deserve with this line. Ohio State won the season's first meeting by 15 points Jan. 29, but Michigan is a different team at home where it is 14-0 with a 12.5-point average margin of victory. Ohio State just lost to a Michigan State team at home by double digits that Michigan defeated on its home floor. This tells me the Wolverines can certainly get the job done tonight.
Michigan has been a terrific investment at 36-17-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall. It is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog, 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. It is also worth noting that the Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.
Ohio State has been heavily overvalued in this series and is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings as a result despite going 6-1 SU. We'll take the points as Michigan has an excellent opportunity to win this one outright.