4* NBA *BEST BET*

Miami vs. Indiana, 02/14/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 105 - 90

Point Spread: +2½/-110 Indiana

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Loss

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +2.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive losses, and further fueled by an embarrassing 35-point loss in Miami last month, expect Indiana to bounce back strong tonight.

The Pacers will be the fresher team as they have had 2 full days to rest up and prepare. The Heat, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in as many days.

Plays on home underdogs off an upset loss, good team winning 60% or more of their games on the season, are 45-18 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 2.6 points on average but have won by an average of 1.8 points. It is worth noting that this system has produced an 8-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Take the points.