4* Thursday Night Football *BEST BET*
Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh,
12/08/2011 20:20 EDT,
Score: 3 - 14
Point Spread: +14½/-115 Cleveland
4* Thursday Night Football *BEST BET* on Browns +14.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to division rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore, and further motivated by getting swept in last season's series with Pittsburgh, I expect the Browns to leave it all on the field tonight.
Because of the heavy betting attention the Steelers receive, they are often overvalued, especially when coming off a win. The Steelers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. They are just are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points.
In addition, Pittsburgh is only 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. It has won these games by just 8.9 points on average.
Also, plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-9 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 8.7 points on average. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll bet the Browns.