5* MAC Game of the Year
Buffalo vs. Toledo,
02/04/2012 19:00 EDT,
Score: 72 - 65
Point Spread: +5/-110 Toledo
5* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo +5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by 4 straight losses in the series, I like Toledo's chances of pulling off this upset.
Buffalo has not been the same team on the road, where it has lost 4 of its last 6. It is worth noting that just one of those 2 wins in this stretch came by more than 2 points, and that was against a Northern Illinois squad that's 2-18.
The Bulls have certainly struggled at Toledo, where they have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings by an average score of 78.0 to 63.0. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. It should also be noted that the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Toledo is 9-1 ATS in home games after 2 straight games of allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1997. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Witherspoon after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. It's losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take Toledo.