Joe D'Amico's NCAAB Odds Makers Mistake Winner

Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green, 02/04/2012 18:00 EDT, Score: 40 - 65

Point Spread: -17/-110 Bowling Green

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Win

Today's winner is Bowling Green over Northern Illinois. This is my Odds Makers Mistake Play.

The odds makers are way off on this line. Bowling Green should be at least a 22-23 point fav here. BG is 13-5 ATS this season, covering 6 of their L8, including 3 of 4 at home. The Falcons come off of one of their strongest performances this season, whooping Western Michigan, 72-48 (as a 4 point 'dog) sinking 14 of their first 15 shots. Forwards Calhoun and Thomas are evolving into a very dangerous front court duo, combining for 25.0 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 17 blocks, with both shooting just about 70% from the line. NIU is 2-18 SU, 0-8 on the road, 1-7 in the Conference, and are riding a 5 game skid in which they are being outscored by 19.6 PPG. The Huskies rank 344th in FG%. They lack the height and muscle to penetrate the paint so they have no choice but to chuck it from outside where they are just 29.3%. Bowling Green has taken the L5 contests over Northern Illinois, including a 2 game sweep and cover LY. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS their L10 games played at home, 6-2 ATS their L8 games vs. the MAC, and 4-1 ATS their L5 games played against teams with a losing record. Take Bowling Green. Thank you.