NBA FREE PICK: New Orleans Hornets +9

New Orleans vs. San Antonio, 02/02/2012 20:30 EDT, Score: 81 - 93

Point Spread: +9/-105 New Orleans

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

My money is on the New Orleans Hornets to come out with their best effort against the Spurs tonight. The key here is to look past the individual records of both teams and look at situation facing both teams. There is no question that the Spurs are the better team, but this is a very difficult spot for San Antonio. Not only are the Spurs playing the second of a back-to-back, but they are playing their fourth game in five days. The Hornets find themselves in the exact same situation, but it will be more difficult for the aging Spurs to get up for a bad team than it will for the Hornets to try and beat one of the top teams.

I understand the Spurs are a much better team at home than they are on the road, but you can't ignore the fact that they won by just 2-points (104-102)at New Orleans earlier this season.

Another thing you have to take into consideration is the 30 minutes logged by veteran Tim Duncan in the Spurs 18-point second half rally against the Rockets last night. Duncan's minutes have been limited all season. I believe there's a good chance he won't play very much in this game if at all.

The Spurs are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, while the Hornets are an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. BET NEW ORLEANS!