Jack's Free Pick Wednesday!

Houston vs. San Antonio, 02/01/2012 20:30 EDT, Score: 91 - 99

Point Spread: -5/-110 San Antonio

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

The San Antonio Spurs are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Houston Rockets. The Spurs have been dominant at home all season, and they should certainly be laying more than just 5 points here tonight.

San Antonio is 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS in all home games this year. They are scoring 102.0 points/game while allowing just 89.5 points/game. As you can see, the Spurs are outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points/game on their home floor.

The home team has had a huge edge in this series over the last few years. The home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings overall. San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home meetings with the Rockets. That includes a 101-95 victory in their first meeting this season.

This play falls into a system that is 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against road teams (HOUSTON) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. The Spurs are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 home games after 3 straight games where they made 42% of their shots or worse. Bet San Antonio Wednesday.