5* Super Bowl *BEST BET*

NY Giants vs. New England, 02/05/2012 18:30 EDT, Score: 21 - 17

Point Spread: -2½/-117 New England

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* Super Bowl *BEST BET* on Patriots -2.5
This game is all about revenge. The Giants spoiled New England's perfect season 4 years ago, and the Pats want payback.

A 24-20 loss to the Giants on Nov. 6 (it is worth noting the Pats outgained the G-Men by 77 yards in that contest) must have brought back bad memories of their Super Bowl defeat because New England has been on a tear since.

The Patriots have won 10 straight since that game by an average of 16.1 points and all of those wins have come by at least 3 points.

There's no way I would make a revenge play without good reason, and there's plenty of good reason in this case.

Under Belichick, New England is 17-3 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. If the Pats were favored by 7 points or more, this trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 16.0 points.

New York scored with 15 seconds left to win the regular season meeting. Otherwise, the Patriots would have won by 3 points despite 4 turnovers. I'm confident New England will do a better job of taking care of the football this time around and will have its revenge as a result.