15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +4

College of Charleston vs. Samford, 01/30/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 68 - 52

Point Spread: +4/-105 Samford

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

Samford is playing their best basketball of the season over the past two-plus weeks. They should not be an underdog at home against a Charleston team that is in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. I'll side with the home team playing the better basketball right now.

Despite being an underdog in four of their last five games, Samford has gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. Their only loss came by a single points at UNC-Greensboro 60-61. This team is playing so well that they even beat Davidson 77-74 last time out as a 12-point dog.

Charleston is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. That includes back-to-back home losses to Furman and Wofford, which followed road losses at Davidson (69-87) and at Georgia Southern. Charleston was favored in three of those four games.

This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against any team (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - off 2 or more upset consecutive losses as a home favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, while the Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Roll with Samford Monday.