3* NBA *Super System Smoker*
New Orleans vs. Miami,
01/30/2012 19:30 EDT,
Score: 95 - 109
Point Spread: +13/-110 New Orleans
3* NBA *Super System Smoker* on Hornets +13
It's going to be tough for the Heat to get up for this game following such a big win over the Bulls Sunday. The Hornets, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for the defending Eastern Conference Champs, especially following Sunday's disappointing performance against the Hawks.
History is on our side here as plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, provided they are a very good team that outscores their opponents by 6 or more points/game and are coming off a win by 6 points or less, are 40-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 12.0 points but are only winning by an average of 9.1 in this situation.
It is also worth noting that the Heat are just 11-23 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points under coach Spoelstra. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more.
The Hornets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or more points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Hornets are also 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 in this series and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami. Take the points.