5* NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME GUARANTEED TOP PLAY

NY Giants vs. San Francisco, 01/22/2012 18:30 EDT, Score: 20 - 17

Point Spread: -2/-103 San Francisco

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

My money is on the San Francisco 49ers to cover the low 2-point spread at home against the New York Giants. With the 49ers remarkable win over the Saints, they improved to 8-1 at home this season. The only loss came back in week 2, when they fell 24-27 in overtime to the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco isn't known for having a great home field advantage, but that has changed this season.

I'll be the first to say the Giants win at Green Bay was extremely impressive, but I don't think they match up well with San Francisco at all in this game. The 49ers possess a defense that is more than capable of shutting down the Giants passing attack. Green Bay's defense was overrated all season, and it finally caught up to them.

One thing that seems to be getting completely overlooked in this game is turnovers. The Giants feasted off four Green Bay turnovers, but now face a 49ers offense that has turned it over just 11 times all season. San Francisco has made a living of forcing turnovers all season (43 to be exact), and go up against a Giants offense that has turned it over 25 times this season.

IF that isn't enough take a look at these two systems in play. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game this season and 8-1 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. BET THE 49ERS!