5* AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME GUARANTEED TOP PLAY

Baltimore vs. New England, 01/22/2012 15:00 EDT, Score: 20 - 23

Point Spread: +7/-105 Baltimore

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

The New England Patriots should not be laying this many points against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. While New England has won three of the last four dating back to 2007, not one of those wins came by more than six points.

If you think Baltimore is going to be intimmedated by having to play this game on the road, think again. Baltimore went into Foxboro and beat the Patriots 33-14 in the divisional round two seasons ago.

If you base your pick off how both teams looked last week, you are making a big mistake.

The Patriots defense looked sharp against the Broncos, but that isn't that surprising when you consider they were facing an offense that could only run the football. Baltimore not only has a great running game behind Ray Rice, but Joe Flacco is more than capable of picking apart a horrible New England secondary.

On the other side of the ball, I think the Ravens defense is more than capable of slowing down the Patriots offense. In the last four games in the series, New England hasn't scored more than 27-points. I fully expect them to hold the Patriots under 30 in this matchup, meaning Baltimore needs just three touchdowns and a field goal to cover.

Baltimore should have covered the 7.5-point spread last week, but the fact that they didn't actually adds to the value. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. BET BALTIMORE!