4* SEC BOOKIE BEATDOWN
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama,
01/19/2012 19:00 EDT,
Score: 69 - 59
Point Spread: -5/-107 Alabama
The public has jumped all over Vanderbilt, which has lowered the line from 6.5 to 5. My initial thought was on Alabama. Now that they are laying just 5-points at home, it's simply too strong of a play to pass up. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 at home this season, winning by an average of 15-points. Their only home loss came back in the beginning of December when they fell 55-57 to Georgetown.
There are two things I really like about Alabama as a small home favorite. The Crimson Tide really get after it defensively, allowing just 53.6 ppg. The other thing is they shoot just over 71% from the free throw line at home. The ability to stop Vanderbilt and cash in on free throws late in the game, will be what gets us over the 5-point spread.
Alabama is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. BET THE CRIMSON TIDE!