15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -8

Maryland vs. Virginia, 03/10/2013 18:00 EDT, Score: 58 - 61

Point Spread: -8/-105 Virginia

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

According to Joe Lunardi's bracketology, the Virginia Cavaliers are the first team listed in the "First Four Out" category. That means this is an extremely important game for them, and as a result I look for them to roll at home today over the Maryland Terrapins.

While Virginia has a ton to play for, Maryland comes in deflated after giving away its chances of making the NCAA Tournament over the past couple weeks. The Terrapins have lost four of their last seven with ugly road losses to Georgia Tech (68-78) and Boston College (58-69), as well as double-digit home losses to UNC (68-79) and Virginia (80-69).

After already beating the Terrapins by 11 on the road, I have no doubt the Cavaliers can win the rematch by 9-plus at home this time around. That's because Virginia is 17-0 SU & 13-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points/game. Maryland is just 3-6 in true road games this year.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Virginia is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Roll with Virginia Sunday.