4* NCAAB ABSOLUTE SMASH

Iowa vs. Purdue, 01/17/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 68 - 75

Point Spread: -10/-108 Purdue

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

The public is jumping all over Iowa after their 75-59 win over Michigan, but I believe that's exactly what the oddsmakers want. Purdue went to Iowa City and barely held on for a 79-76 win. That close game and the Hawkeyes big win over Michigan will have Purdue's full attention. The Boilermakers know they have to come to play, and that will be the difference in this game.

Iowa has a number of big losses this season. They lost by 16 at home to Clemson, 20 at Northern Iowa, 10 at Iowa State, 29 at home to Ohio State, and 34 at Michigan State. I believe a lot of Iowa's success comes from teams overlooking them, as they haven't exactly been much of a threat the last few years.

Added to all of this is the fact that Purdue lost at home to Wisconsin in their last game as a 2.5-point favorite.

The Boilermakers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, while Iowa is just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win! BET PURDUE -10!