15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

Philadelphia vs. Miami, 03/08/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 93 - 102

Point Spread: +13½/-105 Philadelphia

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

The Miami Heat are way overvalued right now due to their 16-game winning streak. I faded them with success in a 97-96 home victory over the Orlando Magic as a 15.5-point underdog on Wednesday. I'll gladly fade them again tonight as a double-digit favorite over the Philadelphia 76ers.

When you win so many games in a row it's only human nature to get a little bit lazy and think that it's easy. That's why the Heat nearly got upset by the Magic on Wednesday, and it's why I would not be surprised one bit to see Philadelphia upset them tonight.

The 76ers are in revenge mode following a 90-114 home loss to Miami on February 23rd just two weeks ago. The 76ers were really banged up at that point, but Thaddeus Young, who is arguably their best player, has returned since. Philly will be motivated for revenge and to put an end to their current 3-game skid.

This play falls into a system that is 67-28 (70.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games.

Philadelphia is 53-30 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996. The 76ers are 14-4 ATS after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 4-16 ATS in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins since 1996. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the 76ers Friday.