15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Bobcats +14.5
Oklahoma City vs. Charlotte,
03/08/2013 19:00 EDT,
Score: 116 - 94
Point Spread: +14½/-110 Charlotte
This is the perfect opportunity to fade the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Sure, the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league against the spread all season, but I have no problem backing them tonight considering how tough a spot this is for the Thunder.
Oklahoma City will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 6 days tonight. After beating the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks n its last three contests, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder. Plus, they will be fatigued, so they won't be able to give the kind of effort it takes to win this game by 15-plus points tonight.
Because Charlotte is the worst team in the league against the spread, that means the betting public will be fading them from here on out. That provides us with ample value to back the Bobcats at a great price tonight. They will be out for revenge for an embarrassing 69-114 loss at Oklahoma City in their first meeting of the season on November 26th as well.
This play falls into a system that is 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to be on underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. Also, Oklahoma City is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 3 points or less. Take the Bobcats Friday.