15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

LA Clippers vs. Denver, 03/07/2013 22:30 EDT, Score: 92 - 107

Point Spread: +4½/-108 LA Clippers

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing solid value as a 4.5-point underdog tonight against the Denver Nuggets in a game that will go right down to the wire. I fully expect the Clippers to win this game outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.

Denver comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak. Four of those six wins came against teams with losing records. Now, the Nuggets will meet their match tonight in the Clippers. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 games overall with its only losses coming to San Antonio and Oklahoma City, which are top two teams in the Western Conference.

This is clearly an excellent matchup for the Clippers considering they have won six of the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011, which includes a 2-1 road mark. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Denver. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings as well.

This lay falls into a system that is 72-28 (72%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams (LA CLIPPERS) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.

The Clippers are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road games. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Roll with the Clippers Thursday.