20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/76ers UNDER 196.5

Golden State vs. Philadelphia, 03/02/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 97 - 104

Total: -103/+196½ Under

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Loss

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. The Warriors are a tired team, and they have been showing signs of wearing down here of late.

This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for the Warriors. They lost 86-94 at Boston last night for 180 combined points. This is a jump shooting team, and the shots simply aren't going to fall considering how tired their legs will be tonight. I look for them to try and win this game because of their defense.

Golden State has an excellent chance of shutting down Philadelphia considering how poorly the 76ers have played offensively of late. The 76ers have scored 93 or fewer points in 12 straight games. However, they have only allowed 100-plus in two of those 12 contests. Philly is averaging a woeful 86.1 points/game in its last 12 games.

While those are all great reasons for a low-scoring game tonight, my biggest reason for backing the UNDER is the recent head-to-head meetings between these teams. Golden State and Philadelphia have combine for 188 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings over the past two seasons. They have combined for 185, 188 and 186 points, averaging just 186.3 points/game in the process. As you can see, that's roughly 10 points fewer than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Philadelphia is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.