20* Grizzlies/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Memphis +8.5

Memphis vs. Miami, 03/01/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 91 - 98

Point Spread: +8½/-110 Memphis

Sportsbook: WilliamHill

Result: Win

The Memphis Grizzlies simply have the Miami Heat's number in recent meetings. That's because this is a terrible match-up for Miami as it does not have the post presence to go up against a team like Memphis, which runs its offense through the underrated duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. I look for both of these guys to have monster games tonight for the Grizzlies.

Memphis has won its two most recent meetings with Miami in blowout fashion. It won 104-86 at home on November 11th in their first meeting this season, and 97-82 on the road on April 6th in their final meeting of 2012. In fact, the Grizzlies have now won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series.

The Heat come into this game way overvalued due to their current 12-game winning streak. They have shown signs of being overvalued in their past two games with a come-from-behind 109-105 home victory over Cleveland as a 12-point favorite, and a 141-129 (2 OT) home win over Sacramento as a 15-point favorite.

Memphis has shown that it really does not miss Rudy Gay one bit. It has won eight straight games heading into this contest and it will continue playing with a chip on its shoulder against the defending champs tonight. I look for this one to go right down to the wire, and for the Grizzlies to likely pull off the upset.

The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Memphis is 11-1 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making >=39% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a 19-1 (95%) system backing Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Friday.