Free Pick on Houston Cougars +

Houston vs. Memphis, 02/20/2013 21:00 EDT, Score: 74 - 81

Point Spread: +19/-110 Houston

Sportsbook: WilliamHill

Result: Win

The Memphis Tigers have played an extremely weak schedule this season. That is why they have only three losses but still rank 21st in the nation. Memphis is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams that are scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Houston averages 78 points per game and they go a great job of avoiding turnovers and rarely get into foul trouble.

You should always play on underdogs of 10 or more points when they are shooting 36.5% or more from beyond the three point line against a team with an average three point defense allowing 32-36.5% after 15 games in a season when both teams are outrebounding their opponents. This system is 29-8 ATS since 1997.