20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Hawks UNDER 197.5

Miami vs. Atlanta, 02/20/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 103 - 90

Total: -105/+197½ Under

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Win

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle as this will be the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. Each has had about a week off and both will have extra time to prepare for one another, which favors the defense.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have missed their mark tonight. Not counting overtime, each of the last 19 meetings between the Hawks and Heat have seen 197 or less combined points. This makes for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2009 pertaining to tonight's total set. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.