3* on North Texas -

North Texas vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 02/14/2013 20:30 EDT, Score: 73 - 85

Point Spread: -4/-107 North Texas

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

This line provides a lot of value on the Mean Green Eagles. North Texas returned 5 starters from last season compared to the 1 starter returned by LA-Monroe. The Warhawks are definitely going through a rebuilding year with a 3-17 record on the season and they have lost nine consecutive games coming into this matchup.

This game falls into a system to play against home teams as an underdog or pick when they are a poor offensive team that is scoring less than 64 points per game, coming off a performance with a combined score of 155 points or more. This system is 125-75 ATS since 1997.

The LA-Monroe offense ranks 323rd among division one teams averaging a mere 59.9 points per game. Even against a soft North Texas defense this will be an ugly game for the Warhawks. When comparing common opponents the Mean Green are scoring more points, committing less turnovers, getting more rebounds and holding opponents to a shooting percentage that is almost 5% less than what LA-Monroe is allowing.