4* HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee Tech +
Tennessee Tech vs. Eastern Kentucky,
02/14/2013 19:00 EDT,
Score: 69 - 80
Point Spread: +12½/-102 Tennessee Tech
This is a lot of points for the Golden Eagles to be receiving. This matchup falls into a system to play against favorites of 10 or more points like Eastern Kentucky when they are coming off a win against a conference rival, in February games. This system is 407-295 over the last 5 seasons. Those numbers tighten up to 343-238 ATS the last five seasons when that favorite is playing at home.
Early season statistics do not hold much weight, but after 15+ games it is pretty easy to get an understanding of a team’s weaknesses and strengths from a statistical analysis. For Eastern Kentucky that weakness is rebounding. Tennessee Tech is 8-1 ATS in road games versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
Eastern Kentucky has been getting a lot more respect from oddsmakers than they deserve when playing at home which is why they are a mere 1-6 ATS in home games. With the Colonels ranking 343rd out of 347 division one teams in rebounding I don’t see them betting the big blowout it will take to cover such a large number. Take Tennessee Tech and the points.