15* Blazers/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Portland +11.5

Portland vs. Miami, 02/12/2013 19:30 EDT, Score: 104 - 117

Point Spread: +11½/-107 Portland

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Loss

The Portland Trail Blazers are showing solid value as a double-digit road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday. Portland comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping three straight road games at Dallas, Houston and Orlando heading in.

The Blazers were clearly overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this game with the defending champion Heat, which is only human nature. I look for them to come out with one of their best efforts of the season to try and get a win to get back to .500 on the season.

Miami is coming off a huge win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. It also has a game against defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City on deck Thursday on TNT. The Heat will clearly be overlooking the Blazers and looking ahead to that showdown with the Thunder.

This play falls into a system that is 41-18 (69.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days.

Miami is 0-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot 93.2 to 100.3, or by an average of 7.1 points/game. It is clearly overvalued here tonight. Take the Blazers Tuesday.