4* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Idaho State +
Idaho State vs. Weber State,
02/11/2013 21:00 EDT,
Score: 40 - 56
Point Spread: +17½/-106 Idaho State
How much attention could the Wildcats be paying to the Bengals? Weber is playing on one day's rest and they also have Montana coming up quickly, a team that is 14-0 in Big Sky play and two games in front of Weber in the league standings. They then play Montana State Saturday, the other conference foe that handed them a loss earlier in the year.
There is no doubt that Weber State is the better team here tonight as they come in with a 16-5 record compared to Idaho State's 4-18. However, you want to fade double digit favorites that have won 60% or more of their games when taking on a team that has won 20% of less. This situation is 59-28 (68%) over the last five seasons. The short rest also works against Weber as fading double digit favorites playing on one day's rest in February has gone 116-64 (64.4%) the last five years.
The public is going to look at how these teams have done recently and what happened the first time they squared off against each other. The first time these two teams met Weber won by 16 points on the road, shooting 55.8% from the floor and hitting 10-of-20 from behind the 3-point arc. Those are numbers that will be difficult to repeat, plus underdogs revenging a home loss against an opponent who have won less than 20% of their games taking on a team with a winning record are 69-34 (67%) the last five years.
The last time out the Wildcats beat Southern Utah by 17 points at home giving them four straight covers. Idaho State lost to that same Southern Utah team in their last game by two points on their home floor. The good news is that you want to fade double digit favorites off a blowout win by 15 or more points when playing an opponent after a close loss by three points or less. This system is 91-51 (64.1%) over the last five seasons.