4* LATE NIGHT BAILOUT on Seattle +

Seattle vs. New Mexico State, 02/09/2013 21:00 EDT, Score: 57 - 60

Point Spread: +14/-110 Seattle

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Win

New Mexico State has been rolling, winning 10 straight games and covering six of their last seven. However, teams in smaller conferences that get hot like this get over-valued fairly quickly. Fading double digit favorites that have won 5 or 6 of their last seven ages playing their 2nd game in 3 days is 79-41 (65.8%) over the last five seasons. If you faded double digit favorite that have won 10 or more in a row you would be 160-93 (63.2%) the last five years.

Seattle played New Mexico State tough the first time around, losing 83-82 on their home floor. They lost despite hitting only 7-of-25 from behind the 3-point line. Now they are in a favorable spot since double digit underdogs revenging a home loss are 772-573 (57.4%) the last five years, but when they are playing their second road game in three days that number jumps to 136-80 (63%).

One of New Mexico State's best players, Tyrone Watson, was recently charged with assault and hasn't played the last three games. With Seattle matching up well against the Aggies the first time around, I think they will do even better without Watson on the floor.