3* BAILOUT on UNLV

New Mexico vs. UNLV, 02/09/2013 21:00 EDT, Score: 55 - 64

Point Spread: -5/-110 UNLV

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The last time these two teams met was January 9th in New Mexico, with the Lobos coming out on top by five points. However, a closer look at that game brought to my attention a few key stats. The first is the fact that New Mexico shot 24 more free throws than the Rebels. The second is that UNLV had just four offensive rebounds in that game and lost the turnover battle by five. With both teams shooting at about the same rate, that's a lot of things that didn't go UNLV's way to basically lose by the home court advantage and now to lay the home court advantage here tonight.

New Mexico has been rolling as of late, covering six of their last eight games and winning seven of eight straight up. However, you want to play against hot teams that have covered six or seven of their last eight games when they have won 80% of their games on the year and are taking on another good team that has won at least 60%. This system is 119-66 (64.3%) over the last five seasons.

The last two times the Lobos have taken to the road against a quality opponent it hasn't ended well. They lost 34-55 at San Diego State and 46-60 at St. Louis. I think their road struggles continue tonight against UNLV.