15* Louisville/Notre Dame ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 128

Louisville vs. Notre Dame, 02/09/2013 21:00 EDT, Score: 101 - 104

Total: -110/+128 Under

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Loss

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between Louisville and Notre Dame. I fully anticipate a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one. Both teams will struggle to reach 60 points, and the first to it surely wins.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Louisville's last 5 games overall. It has combined with its last four opponents for 125 points or less in each game, including an average of 116.5 points/game.

Remarkably, six of the last 10 meetings between Louisville and Notre Dame have gone to overtime. I think that's a big reason why this total is inflated, and the chances of them going to OT again are slim to none.

A look at both meetings last season and it's easy to see that there is a lot of value with the UNDER tonight. Notre Dame won the first meeting 67-65 (OT) in a game that was tied 50-50 at the end of regulation for 100 combined points. Louisville won the second 64-50 for 114 combined points.

Notre Dame is 11-1 to the UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average combined score of 114.0 points/game in this spot.

Louisville is 16-1 to the UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing =48% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 33-2 (94%) system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.