20* Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Pacers UNDER 188.5

Toronto vs. Indiana, 02/08/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 100 - 98

Total: -105/+188½ Under

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Loss

The Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The books have set the bar too high in this contest due to recent high-scoring games by both teams, which has forced them to inflate the number.

Indiana was out of character with its back-to-back home wins over Chicago (111-101) and Atlanta (114-103). It got back to reality last time out with an 88-69 road win at Philadelphia. Remember, this is a Pacers team that is scoring just 92.7 points/game and allowing 90.0 points/game on the season.

Toronto lost at home to Boston 95-99 last time out. Its previous three games had all seen 185 or less combined points with a 92-93 loss at Atlanta, a 98-73 home win over the Clippers, and an 85-100 home loss to Miami.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams. The Raptors and Pacers have combined for 185 or less points in four of their last five meetings. That includes both meetings this season with a 74-72 Toronto road victory on November 13th for 146 combined points, and a 90-88 Indiana road win on October 31st for 178 combined points.

Indiana is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 178.8 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.