3* on Cleveland Cavs -

Charlotte vs. Cleveland, 02/06/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 95 - 122

Point Spread: -5½/-105 Cleveland

Sportsbook: Intertops

Result: Win

3* on Cleveland Cavs -

The last time these two teams played Cleveland jumped out to a commanding 62-48 lead at half, only to almost let it slip away. The Cavs still came away with a two point win in Charlotte and I think how they played early was a sign on who has the most talent. I also like how these teams matchup. Cleveland allows opponents to shoot 37.6% from behind the 3-point arc, but Charlotte doesn't shoot a lot of threes, averaging four less per game than their opponents normally allow. On the other hand, Charlotte allows 38.8% 3-point shooting and for their opponents to take 4 more per game than usual. That's a big disadvantage and a big reason why this team is 12-22 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point attempts this season.

The Cavs might allow their opponents to shoot at a high rate too, but the Bobcats 3-15 ATS against teams that allow opponents to hit more than 46% the last two years.

Charlotte played well the last time out, losing by five points to the Heat in Miami and covering the 14 point spread, but this team has some glaring problems. They have allowed their last three opponents to all shoot over 50% from the floor and they have done a terrible job on the glass.

The previous matchup and recent play by the Bobcats actually sets us up for a nice little system. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a straight up loss v. an opponent as a favorite, off a game in which the team covered but lost. This situation is 99-50 (66.4%) ATS since 1996.