4* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +

Central Michigan vs. Akron, 02/05/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 56 - 68

Point Spread: +19½/-107 Central Michigan

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

4* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +

I'll take the large number of points here tonight as I think Central Michigan keeps this one somewhat close. You aren't going to find a lot of public support for this play since Akron has won 13 straight games and two in a row at the pay window. They are coming off a 86-72 beating of their toughest MAC opponent in Ohio they could be in for a little bit of a letdown here tonight. All of this gives us a little bit of value with a line this big. Fading favorites of 10 or more points off nine or more wins is 201-124 (61.8%) the last five years, but when that team is facing a team with a losing record the system tightens to 79-45 (63.7%).

The fact that Akron won in such a blowout fashion is important in another way. You want to fade favorites of 10 or more points off a home win in February, this situation is 210-135 (60.9%) over the last five seasons. However, when that team scored 85 or more points in their previous game this system tightens to 57-24 (70.4%).

Central Michigan is an ugly team. They don't shoot very well (39.8% on the year) and they give up a terrible field goal percentage (46.7%). However, what they do well is shoot free throws (hitting 72.4%). That puts them in a very favorable situation here tonight that says to take road underdogs of 10 or more points who make 72% or more of their free throws, shoot 42% or worse from the field, and allow 45% or better shooting from their opponents. These teams are 52-22 (70.3%) the last five years.

The free throw advantage is what keeps this thing closer than the oddsmakers expect. Central Michigan gets to the line three times more per game than opponents normally allow while Akron allows two more free throws per game than their opponents normally take. Those extra freebies give us an edge with this one.