4* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Hawks +

Atlanta vs. Indiana, 02/05/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 103 - 114

Point Spread: +5/-102 Atlanta

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

4* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Hawks +

I think we are getting a little bit of value with the Hawks here tonight. One reason is due to their ugly loss yet again to Chicago. Atlanta scored only 76 points and lost by 17 at home, but they have had a couple of days off to work on areas of concern and prepare for Indiana.

The Pacers on the other hand are coming off a few big wins. They beat Detroit at home by 19 points, then the Heat by 13. Last night they hosted the same Chicago Bulls the Hawks just got embarrassed by and won by 10 points. Indiana has now covered four straight and the public is going to be jumping on their bandwagon tonight against a Hawks team that hasn't covered in two straight.

However, with the Pacers are playing their fourth home game in a row Frank Vogel is just 8-24 ATS after playing two straight home games and he is 11-25 ATS after covering two or more in a row as the coach of Indiana.

How these teams have played recently also fits a nice little trend. You want to play against home teams off two straight double digit wins playing an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Fading these teams would have gone 36-14 (72%) over the last five years.