15* Giants/Packers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Green Bay -7.5

NY Giants vs. Green Bay, 01/15/2012 16:30 EDT, Score: 37 - 20

Point Spread: -7½/-102 Green Bay

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

The Green Bay Packers have been unstoppable at home all season. I know the Giants are playing well here of late, but going into Lambeau Field and coming away with a victory is a tall task. I think New York's luck runs out Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champs, and the best team in the league.

The Packers went 15-1 this season despite resting numerous starters, including Aaron Rodgers, in a 45-41 victory over the Detroit Lions in their season finale. Green Bay went 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 40.1 points/game while allowing 21.4 points/game. They outscored their opponents by a whopping 18.7 points/game at home this year.

Despite going 5-3 on the road, the Giants were actually outscored 26.0 to 26.9 away from home. As you can see, they gave up nearly 27.0 points/game on the road, and they also allowed a ridiculous 396 yards/game. This defense has played better in recent weeks, but they will have no answer for Rodgers and the best scoring offense in the NFL.

While the Packers are ranked 32nd in the league in total defense, it's clear that that means nothing. Green Bay scores so quickly on offense that the other team simply gets more opportunities with the ball, thus they are going to rack up more yardage. It's important to note that the Packers had a league-high 31 interceptions this season and were +24 in turnovers, which was the second-best mark in the NFL. This clearly makes up for the yardage they gave up defensively.

Aaron Rodgers has simply sliced up this New York defense each of the last two times he has faced the Giants. Rodgers threw for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns in their 45-17 home victory over the Giants at the end of last season. He threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in their 38-35 road victory over New York earlier this season. The Packers racked up a combined 964 yards (482/game) in those two games.

The Packers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. Green Bay is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. Roll with Green Bay Sunday.