15* Saints/49ers NFL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4

New Orleans vs. San Francisco, 01/14/2012 16:30 EDT, Score: 32 - 36

Point Spread: +4/-110 San Francisco

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

The San Francisco 49ers should not be an underdog at home to the New Orleans Saints Saturday. New Orleans is way overvalued right now after they way they finished the season. But the fact of the matter is that the Saints aren't the same team on the road that they are at home. Public perception on New Orleans right now is at an all-time high, which is why the 49ers are showing such great value.

The Saints are just 5-3 on the road this season with three of their wins coming by five points or less. Their two blowout road wins came against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings. If the Saints do manage to win Sunday, it won't be by more than a field goal, which would give us the cover.

San Francisco has the type of team it takes to beat the Saints. You need a ball-control offense and a tremendous defense that can get Drew Brees and company off the field on 3rd downs. The Saints have converted 57.1 percent of their 3rd downs this season, but the 49ers only allow 35.2 percent 3rd down conversions on defense.

The 49ers were tremendous at home this year. San Francisco posted a 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS mark on home soil. Not only did they beat opponents at home, they absolutely destroyed them. The 49ers average 27.6 points/game and gave up only 10.9 points/game while outscoring foes by a whopping 16.7 points/game. I expect the 49ers to stay unbeaten against the spread at home with an outright victory. Take San Francisco Saturday.