4* AFC Divisional Playoffs SMASH

Denver vs. New England, 01/14/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 10 - 45

Point Spread: +14/-115 Denver

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

4* AFC Divisional Playoffs SMASH on Broncos +14
The Broncos racked up 447 yards of offense on the NFL's top defense last week so they should be able to move the football against a New England defense ranked next-to-last with 411.1 yards allowed per game.

The Broncos had 393 yards of offense in the first meeting but lost by 18 points because of 3 lost fumbles. I don't see the Patriots being as fortunate this time around.

I know this time the game will be at New England, but the Broncos have played better away from home, where they are 5-1 since Tim Tebow took over the starting job. Plus, the Patriots have lost playoff openers at home each of the last two seasons.

The Broncos ultimately had to rely on the pass against Pittsburgh but they should be able to run against the Patriots Saturday. They had 252 rushing yards in the first meeting. This is important because sustaining long drives with the running game keeps the clock moving and the New England offense off the field.

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. Take the points.