5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Miami vs. Indiana, 02/01/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 89 - 102

Total: -103/+183 Under

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER

This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996.

When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons.

The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average.

These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total.