15* Heat/Pacers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Indiana +2

Miami vs. Indiana, 02/01/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 89 - 102

Point Spread: +2½/-110 Indiana

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

While the Pacers have lost three of their last four, all three of those losses came on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders in Denver, Utah and Portland. They lost in overtime to the Jazz, and by a single point to the Nuggets. They certainly haven’t been the best road team in the league.

However, Indiana has been one of the best home teams in the business. It is 17-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 8.2 points per game. Miami is only 11-10 SU on the road this season, and 2-7 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning record this year.

Indiana took Miami to six games in the playoffs last year, and it won the lone meeting this season with an 87-77 home victory on January 8th. The underdog is 27-13-1 against the spread in the last 41 meetings. The Pacers are certainly still better about their playoff loss, and I look for them to take it out on the overvalued Heat once again tonight.

The Pacers actually match up better with Miami than arguably any team in the league. That's because they have lockdown defenders in Paul George and Lance Stephenson who can make life difficult on Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. They also have Roy Hibbert (2.6 BPG) in the paint who can erase any defensive mistakes.

The Heat are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games vs. NBA Central division foes. Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a win. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Pacers Friday.