3* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +

Wisc-Milwaukee vs. Valparaiso, 02/01/2013 20:05 EDT, Score: 40 - 71

Point Spread: +18½/-105 Wisc-Milwaukee

Sportsbook: JustBet.cx

Result: Loss

3* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +

Both of these teams played Wednesday night and now have a quick turnaround playing again tonight. Typically the advantage in these situations falls with the underdog because fading double digit favorites who have covered 5 or 6 of their last seven against the spread playing on a day or less of rest has gone 79-40 ATS (66.4%) the last five years. If you had faded any double digit favorite playing their second game in three days in February you would have been 102-55 (65%) the last five seasons. Add in the fact that Wisconsin-Milwaukee is out for revenge in this game and you fall into a 181-113 (61.6%) ATS system that says to take double digit underdogs out for revenge playing their 2nd game in three days.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a bad team, having lost four in a row and seven of their last eight. They are coming off a cover against Loyola though and that should give them some confidence with the quick turnaround. Valparaiso on the other hand might be in a letdown situation. They snapped a six game losing streak on Wednesday losing by double digits as a three point favorite at Youngstown State. You want to fade home favorites off an upset loss by ten points or more that play an opponent off a double digit road loss. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3%) the last five seasons.

I think there is value in the large dog tonight, so I'll take the big number.