Jack's Free Pick Thursday!
Charlotte vs. Atlanta,
01/12/2012 19:30 EDT,
Score: 81 - 111
Point Spread: +8/-104 Charlotte
The Charlotte Bobcats are out for revenge tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. Charlotte lost in overtime 96-102 to Atlanta on 1/6 less than a week ago, and this team has not forgotten. I like their chances of taking these tired Hawks right down to the wire, possibly pulling off the upset.
Atlanta will be playing their 8th game in 11 days tonight. This has been an absolutely brutal stretch for the Hawks. They started to show signs of tiring last night as they were manhandled 84-96 at Indiana. The Hawks will be running on fumes when they return home tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days. While the Bobcats have had a tough stretch of games as well, they are more rested than Atlanta coming in.
The Bobcats are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Charlotte is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a games where they made 35% of their shots or worse. The Bobcats are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 after a combined score of 160 or less. Charlotte is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Hawks, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Bobcats Thursday.