Joe D'Amico's NFL Super Bowl Winner
Baltimore vs. San Francisco,
02/03/2013 18:30 EDT,
Score: 34 - 31
Point Spread: -3½/-105 San Francisco
Sunday's winner is San Francisco over Baltimore.
The line is currently -3 1/2. I would prefer to buy it down but it won't matter. San Francisco is a complete squad. On offense, Colin Kaepernick has won 7 of his 9 starts (6-3 ATS). The QB, despite being a rookie turned 25 on November 3rd. He may be a rookie but he isn't a kid. He has passed for 1814 yards on a 62.4% CR, 10 TDs, and only 3 INTs in the air and added another 415 YR and 5 scores on the ground. The backfield of Kaepernick and Gore is going to give the Baltimore defense issues, especially behind the most-athletic OL in the game. RB, Gore amassed 1214 YR and 8 TDs and got better as the season progressed. Overall, the team ranks 4th, averaging 155.7 YPG rushing. They face a Baltimore defense that ranks 20th, allowing 122.8 YPG to the run. Lest not forget, recently emerging RB, LaMichael James is in the mix as well. Kaepernick has a dangerous group of receivers, led by WR Crabtree (1105 YR and 9 TDs) and TE, Davis (548 YR and 5 TDs). Moss, Walker, and Gore (out of the backfield) are included in that arsenal. On "D", San Fran ranks #2 in the NFL in points allowed (17.1) and are loaded with playmakers. Baltimore is a good team. But they have had problems with aggressive defenses. Let's face it, despite low scoring performances of 17 PPG against both Cincy and Denver, Baltimore hasn't faced a quality "D" since December 2nd in the 13-10 win over Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has 8 TDs and 0 INTs in the playoffs but Indianapolis, Denver, and New England aren't known for their stop units. Their passing game ranks 17th and running game 20th. RB, Rice had a good season but must line up against a 49ers "D" that ranks 4th in the League allowing just 94.2 YPG rushing. The Ravens "O" has become more of a passing squad. They average 233.7 YPG in the air. But will have problems against the creative 49ers front 7 and LB corps. Face it, Baltimore split out their L8 games, going 4-4 both SU and ATS. We can talk injuries but this team is erratic. San Francisco will get to Flacco and force the QB to make mistakes. On defense, the Baltimore pass rush isn't what it once was and their CBs and nickel-backs are young and have made costly mistakes of late. I don't care about Ray Lewis retiring. If you ask me, there has been a lot of distractions for the Ravens the past few weeks. One more thing, Harbaugh is the better HC and will have this unit more focused on the prize here. Take San Francisco. Thank you.