4* UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hofstra +

Hofstra vs. James Madison, 01/31/2013 19:00 EDT, Score: 41 - 62

Point Spread: +10/-110 Hofstra

Sportsbook: BETONLINE

Result: Loss

4* UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Hofstra +

This is going to be an ugly, low scoring game and this is too many points to pass up on in this spot. Hofstra is just 2-5 in Colonial play but they are only losing by 3.9 ppg. James Madison stands at 6-3 but they are winning by 1.8 ppg. You can see where they might not be quite as good as their wins and losses show.

Neither one of these teams is good offensively. Both shoot at a lower rate than their opponents normally allow. James Madison has been getting points by getting to the line and converting, but Hofstra is a team that plays hands off defense. However, they do a good job of getting to the charity stripe and James Madison has a propensity to foul, so that alone should help the Pride put points on the board.

James Madison has three straight wins, but they were favorites in each. Sure they have the home floor but last year the road team took each game of the series. Six of the last seven games in this series have been decided by three points or less and James Madison hasn't beat Hofstra by double digits since 1/12/2002.

You want to fade double digit favorites who are off a conference win when playing a team off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) the last five seasons. You also want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams scored 65 or less. These teams are 156-91 (63.2%) the last five years when playing on the road.