4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UMKC +

UMKC vs. North Dakota State, 01/31/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 34 - 71

Point Spread: +19/-106 UMKC

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Loss

4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UMKC +





A lot of points being given up by North Dakota State here as they play host to UMKC. The value is with the Kangaroos who are coming off a loss at home as an eight point favorite against Nebraska-Omaha, giving UMKC their second straight loss. The key though is both of those games were at home. UMKC travels very well as evidenced by the three game stretch before their two losses were they covered the number and did so quite comfortably.



North Dakota State is a good team that doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but one weakness is they don't get to the foul line very often. This negates an advantage they would have in that UMKC is a foul happy team. Their main advantage lies with their 3-point shooting against a porous Kangaroo perimeter defense. The only issue with that is when you get up double digits in the second half, coaches want to kill clock and bang it inside, not continue to chuck 3-point shots.



North Dakota State did beat UMKC by 19 points earlier in the year, but like I said this team plays a lot better on the road than they do at home. I think they keep the margin a little bit closer this time around.



A solid system supports our play here that says you want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. These teams are 762-553 (58%) the last five seasons. When that loss was by double digits the system tightens to 434-296 (60%).