15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 198.5

Toronto vs. Atlanta, 01/30/2013 19:30 EDT, Score: 92 - 93

Total: -104/+198½ Under

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER as I don't see either team getting to 100 points in this one.

I believe the biggest reason this total has been inflated is because both teams have played in some high scoring games of late. But the biggest reason for that has been overtime games. Toronto has played three overtime games in its last seven, while Atlanta played a double-overtime game against Boston two games ago.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Hawks and Raptors have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last five meetings. They are averaging a combined 185 points/game during this stretch. That's roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Raptors last 29 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.