Baltimore vs. San Francisco,
02/03/2013 18:30 EDT,
Score: 34 - 31
Point Spread: -3½/-110 San Francisco
San Fran -3.5 (line as of Tuesday- 4 in some places- may want to wait closer to week’s end, MIGHT be at 3)
I have looked at this 6 ways from Sunday, and then re-think it again. Not a tougher Super Bowl to handicap that I can remember gents. The value is in the DEFENSE. 39 out of 46 Teams to play in the Super Bowl had the better defense. Yeah, Ray Lewis, Suggs and Ed Reed are good guys..but overall the Niners defense ranks in the Top 5 in all categories that count, and Baltimore’s defense ranked in the middle of the pack and gave up 415 yards per game in the playoffs to lesser teams than this. Kapernick at QB is an unknown force, does he run, handoff or throw it.? I expect San Fran to run him and stretch the defense and then hit some short passes and seam routes to Vernon Davis. San Frans defense should be able to contain Baltimore’s attack and San Frans defense gave up some big pass plays to Atlanta, and while the Ravens WRs are good, I expect them to not get deep on San Fran. Ravens 20th against the rush, and 17th against the pass, and allow 21 ppg which is their best defensive rank at 12th. The Niners rank 4th BOTRH against the pass and run, and 2nd in the NFL in points allowed. Defense wins big games, and San Frans read option offense enough to keep Baltimore in a zone defense and Kapernick and company good enough to stretch the field vertically and yet have success running the ball. I also feel San Fran’s attitude towards this game is vastly better, they seen more focused. Just an observation worth little but it counts. The 49ers are the better team, no one really argues that, but the better team with the better defense and just as many playmakers as the other team has me on this number, hate the hook but you can buy it down if you want to.
Play 1 Unit on San Fran - (You may want a half unit on the moneyline at -170ish)
UNDER 47.5 – Premium 1 Unit Play
I have looked at this game up one side and down the other, and while there are stars on offense for both teams, and big play guys for both teams, and 2 solid QB’s, and 2 solid Offensive coordinators, I cannot help to think that defense wins big games, always has and always will. As a matter of fact 39 out of the 46 Super Bowl Champions, had the better overall ranked defense in the Super Bowl. That is a very high percentage. Also the last time these 2 brothers met as opposing coaches, Baltimore won 13-6 on Thanksgiving night back in 2011 in Baltimore. Both teams are physical, like to run the ball, and both teams are excellent in the red zone. The pass rush of both teams will limit long yardage throws, and both tight ends should see plenty of catches in a possession receiver type mode. Lots of passes over the middle, lots of running, and both those eat clock. The Rains D bends but does not break as well as the Niners. I see more than 2 field goals in this game as well. Both were involved with some high scoring games to get here, but this game here is a different animal all together. Ravens allow 21 ppg and Niners 18 ppg. I say a knock down drag out, more scoring in the second half than the first but under the total. Both teams in the mid teens and maybe one of them reaches 20 or 24…maybe!
Play 1/2 Unit on the Under
Teaser – 1 Unit – Tease Baltimore to +9.5 to +10 and Tease the Total DOWN to 41.5 and take the OVER.
6 Prop Bet Plays
Play 1 Unit on QB Kapernick UNDER 240 yards passing (-110)
Play 1 Unit on FRANK GORE to score a Touchdown YES (-130)
Torrey Smith OVER 67.5 Yards receiving (-115)
Bernard Pollard SOLO + Assisted Tackles OVER 7.5 (-115)
Team with the most penalty Yards – RAVENS (-120)
Will a team make a field goal in the first quarter – YES (-105)