3* on Northwestern +

Northwestern vs. Michigan, 01/30/2013 18:30 EDT, Score: 46 - 68

Point Spread: +17/-107 Northwestern

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

3* on Northwestern +



Jordan Morgan is doubtful tonight and while the Michigan Wolverines have plenty of other talent on this team, he's a solid role player who rebounds and gets his points efficiently. I think his loss will be felt more than most people think. Michigan has a tough stretch with Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State coming up so I don't think they are going to go all out with a player already down to injury. They will want to save up for the upcoming game that will go a long way to determining the Big Ten champion.



You want to fade double digit favorites off a win against a conference rival against an opponent off an upset loss by double digits. This situation is 100-52 (66%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs who are revering a home loss to an opponent when two winning teas meet. These underdogs are 111-58 (66%) since 1997.



Coach Bill Carmody is 21-9 ATS at Northwestern when playing teams that have won 80% more of their games during the second of the season and this team is 6-0 ATS on the road after allowing opponents to score 30 or less in the first half of two straight games.