4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UC-Santa Barbara +

Santa Barbara vs. Long Beach State, 01/30/2013 23:59 EDT, Score: 55 - 57

Point Spread: +11/-108 Santa Barbara

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

4* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on UC-Santa Barbara +

This is a few too many points for the Gauchos to be getting tonight against the 49ers. Sure Long Beach has a 11-8 record compared to the 7-12 mark for Santa Barbara, but the point differential is more telling. The 49ers are losing their games by 2.4 ppg while the Gauchos are losing theirs by 4.7, showing these two teams are more even than they appear.

I know Santa Barbara is weak defensively, but that is mainly due to trouble against the 3-point shot. Long Beach isn't a great 3-point shooting team so I don't know if they can exploit that weakness. On the other hand UCSB shoots a LOT of 3-pointers and makes a decent percentage while the 49ers give up a higher percentage than their opponents normally make, giving us an advantage with the Gauchos.

Santa Barbara has lost two straight as a home favorite while Long Beach is on a six game winning streak. The Gauchos have lost five of six at the pay window and the 49ers have won five of six. All this translates into the oddsmakers over-adjusting for this game tonight and the value is with the road team.

You want to fade home double digit favorites off a home win against a conference rival when taking on an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 80-43 (65%) since 1997. You also want to take double digit underdogs revering a home loss v. their opponent. These teams are 762-553 (58%) of the last five seasons.