20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +3.5
Dallas vs. Portland,
01/29/2013 22:00 EDT,
Score: 104 - 106
Point Spread: +3½/-105 Dallas
The Dallas Mavericks should not be an underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. This is a must-win game for the Mavs as they trail the Blazers by three games in the Western Conference standings as both teams chase the 8th and final playoff spot.
Dallas comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 6-3 SU & an incredible 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. Its only three losses during this stretch came to Western Conference powers in the Clippers, Spurs and Thunder, all by 6 points or less.
Portland comes in playing its worst basketball of the season. The Blazers are just 2-7 SU in their last nine games overall. They are showing signs of wearing down right now, and for good reason considering they have the worst bench in the league.
Portland's 16.5 points per game off the bench are by far the fewest in the NBA. The Blazers come in tired as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Mavs are well-rested considering this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.
This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more. Dallas beat Portland 114-91 at home in their lone meeting this season on November 5th, which was without Nowitzki.
The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Dallas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 Tuesday games. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.