3* BAILOUT on Nevada +

Nevada vs. UNLV, 01/29/2013 22:00 EDT, Score: 54 - 66

Point Spread: +14½/-107 Nevada

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

3* BAILOUT on Nevada +

I think this is a few too many points for Nevada to be getting in this rivalry game against UNLV. The Rebels don't force many turnovers and the Wolfpack are a solid ball handling team, so they should get plenty of possessions that end in shots.

Another thing I like about this game is how well Nevada gets to the line, and UNLV has a propensity to foul their opponents. On the other hand the Rebels don't shoot many free ones while the Wolfpack play defense without fouling. Nevada shoots four more free throw attempts than their opponents usually average and they hit 75% of their attempts.

You want to play on road underdogs off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog playing their 3rd game in a week. These teams are 106-63 ATS (62.7%) over the last five seasons.

UNLV hasn't won a conference game by more than 12 points. This team was favored by double digits against Air Force and only covered by five. Nevada has two upset wins in their last three games, and while I don't think they win outright they should keep it close like they did last year when they played the Rebels to a 67-71 final in Las Vegas.