20* Broncos/Patriots NFL Saturday Night BAILOUT on Denver +14

Denver vs. New England, 01/14/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 10 - 45

Point Spread: +14/-115 Denver

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

The Denver Broncos have an excellent chance to stay with the New England Patriots Sunday and cover this large number. They already played the Patriots tough earlier this season in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.

Denver is coming off a huge 29-23 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round. They looked like they could beat anyone last Sunday, compiling 447 total yards including 316 passing and three total touchdowns from Tim Tebow. That was against the league's top-ranked defense coming in.

The Broncos had no problem moving the ball the first time they played New England, but they simply beat themselves with turnovers. Denver totaled 393 yards with 252 rushing and 141 passing in their 23-41 loss to New England on 12/18, but they lost three fumbles while the Patriots did not turn the ball over once. If they can at least play the turnover battle even Saturday, they have a chance to beat the Patriots.

This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (DENVER) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season.

New England is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games. These last three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Broncos. Bet Denver Saturday.